Vale Royal AC - Senior Section

Here is a note from the Cheshire GP organiser about the standings and possible outcomes for the GP - which finishes at the Sutton 6 in a few weeks:

MENS TEAM

WILMSLOW are already champions.

VALE ROYAL are in a very strong position to take second. The only club who

can overhaul them is SOUTH CHESHIRE HARRIERS, but they would need to exceed

their highest score so far this season. Similarly, MACCLESFIELD can overhaul

South Cheshire for third (but not Vale Royal for second), but they too would

require a season's best score to do so.

Current score Max score Max likely

Wilmslow 3244 (ALREADY CHAMPIONS)

Vale Royal 3089 3179 3161

South Cheshire 3032 3143 3085

Macclesfield 2958 3073 3008

Max score = maximum score (ie first 6 finishers) at the last race

Max likely = repeating season's best score at the last race

WOMENS TEAM

The three prizewinners are already determined, but not their order.

MACCLESFIELD are almost certain to finish third - they would require a

near-maximum score to overhaul VALE ROYAL for second.

WILMSLOW appear to have a signicant, 23-point lead over Vale Royal. However,

if we look at the current FIVE best scores (it is of course the best 6 to

score), then Wilmslow are only 4 points ahead. If we assume that both clubs

will repeat their current season's best score, this gives a "maximum likely"

score. On this basis, it predicts a win for Vale Royal by

a mere 2 points. Therefore, it really is that close !!

Current score Max score Max likely

Wilmslow 1015 1045 1029

Vale Royal 992 1041 1031

Macclesfield 888 996 980

Max score = maximum score (ie first 4 finishers) at the last race

Max likely = repeating season's best score at the last race

MENS INDIVIDUAL

STUART DOYLE can finish no lower than second. the only person who can

overhaul him is DAMIAN NICHOLS, who will definitely win if he finishes in

the first 2, and will probably win if he is in the first 4 (depending on

Stuart's position). ROB DOWNS can tie Stuart's point total, but would lose

on countback, as Stuart's 6th best score would be better than Rob's (whose

would be zero), so the best he can do is second. In the absence of Damian

and/or Rob, JIM PENDRILL can also finish second or third. In addition, the

current 2nd and third placers - ANDREW LAMONT and MIKE HATTON - can

obviously still finish in those places, and Mike can still snatch second

with a season's best score.

Club Current score Max score Max likely

Likely(2)

Stuart Doyle Vale Royal 494 (5/7) 496 496

495

Andrew Lamont Macclesfield 480 (5) 486 485

482

Mike Hatton South Cheshire 477 (5) 484 481

480

Damian Nichols Wilmslow 398 (4) 498 498

497

Rob Downs Wilmslow 394 (4) 494 494

492

Jim Pendrill Wilmslow 388 (4) 488 488

484

Max score = maximum score (ie a victory) at the last race

Max likely = repeating season's best score at the last race

Likely = repeating season's THIRD best score at the last race (ie an

'average' performance)

WOMENS INDIVIDUAL

As with the team prizes, the winners are already determined. NICOLA BIRD is

a clear winner, and the only thing to be decided is whether KRISTY READMAN

can overhaul GEMMA BARNETT for second. To do this she has to finish ahead of

Gemma AND finish in the top 5. Otherwise Gemma will retain her second place,

with Kristy third.

Club Current score Max score Max likely

Likely(2)

Nicola Bird Ellesmere Port 249 (5/6) (ALREADY CHAMPION)

Gemma Barnett Vale Royal 233 (5/7) 238 237

234

Kristy Readman Macclesfield 230 (5) 238 236

235

Max score = maximum score (ie a victory) at the last race

Max likely = repeating season's best score at the last race

Likely = repeating season's THIRD best score at the last race (ie an

'average' performance)

COUNTBACK

If required, the tie-breaker will take into account dropped scores, and so

the person who has the best 6th-best score (or 7th or 8th if these are tied)

will win. (Note that this does mean that if one person has done only the

minimum of 5 races, and the other has done 6 or more, then the latter person

will win.)

If the scores are still tied (which would happen if the 2 runners have

identical records, but can also happen in other circumstances too), then

their head-to-head GP record is taken into account - the one who beat the

other more often (in GP races where both took part) will be the winner.

If this does not split them, then the higher number of GP wins (then

seconds, then thirds) will be taken into account.

Only then (ie the runners having identical records and equal number of

victories over each other) will the prize be shared.

All prizes will be handed out at the prize-giving after the final race.

CAN LAST YEAR'S TEAM WINNERS PLEASE REMEMBER TO BRING BACK THE TROPHIES !!